Timeline for Calculating winning probability for 2 teams using their history?
Current License: CC BY-SA 3.0
7 events
| when toggle format | what | by | license | comment | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2015 at 17:30 | vote | accept | Martin J | ||
| Mar 13, 2015 at 17:30 | comment | added | Martin J | Yes, this is probably what I'm going to do. Anyway, thanks for referring the ELO system. I already actually knew about it but reading further about the algorithm it gave me a bunch of other ideas that I think I'll implement. | |
| Mar 12, 2015 at 12:46 | comment | added | Konrad Morawski | @MartinJ I see what you mean, but if you want to attribute more weight to direct encounters between team1 and team2 (disregarding, or giving less relevance to how they both ranked against team3, team4 etc.), you can simply recalculate the ratings of team1 and team2 based on the outcomes of matches they played against eachother, and these matches only. So ELO is still useful, you just feed the algorithm with a narrowed down subset of game results. How about that? | |
| Mar 11, 2015 at 1:01 | comment | added | Martin J | [continued].. In that case the 1000-500 prediction should be a lot different, because history shows that team1 always loses to team2 while team2 might be losing a lot to other teams (hence the low elo). | |
| Mar 11, 2015 at 0:58 | comment | added | Martin J | Thanks for the response I appreciate it. The ELO rating system is actually pretty useful for this but it's not really exactly what I want. ELO system uses only it's ranking to calculate. While it does make a good prediction about a bad team and a good team it still doesn't quite do what I'd like. I have a database full of match histories and I'd like to implement this somehow to make the prediction more accurate. For example when team1 has elo 1000 and team2 has elo 500, it's very likely that team1 will win, right? Wrong. What if in the past team2 has always won against team1. | |
| Mar 11, 2015 at 0:32 | history | edited | Konrad Morawski | CC BY-SA 3.0 | added 43 characters in body |
| Mar 11, 2015 at 0:27 | history | answered | Konrad Morawski | CC BY-SA 3.0 |