In your situation retrospectives are too late.
Are you holding daily stand-up meetings and truly getting status from people about what they did in the previous 24 hours?
Is the scrum master using those meetings to measure each developer's progress against their goals?
You need to use that piece of the Scrum methodology to monitor the progress as you go. It should give you good insight into what people are doing.
Are they distracted? Spending too much time on coffee, or on helping other people on SE/SO, or reading the news, or doing inspections that aren't accounted for? Or are they really head-down, full-steam ahead and thoroughly over-committed? The daily view should give you a good idea. It will also help to keep devs focused on the task at hand, so they don't have to admit they did nothing yesterday.
And of course if they report steady progress all through the sprint and still don't deliver at the end, then they were lying and it might be time for a new developer.
Sinc
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