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Timeline for Forward on a stock with Dividends

Current License: CC BY-SA 4.0

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Nov 9, 2022 at 20:00 vote accept Conductor
Nov 9, 2022 at 20:00 history edited Conductor CC BY-SA 4.0
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Nov 9, 2022 at 17:04 history edited Conductor CC BY-SA 4.0
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Nov 9, 2022 at 16:38 history edited Conductor CC BY-SA 4.0
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Nov 9, 2022 at 15:32 history edited Conductor CC BY-SA 4.0
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Nov 9, 2022 at 15:22 history edited Conductor CC BY-SA 4.0
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Nov 9, 2022 at 6:05 answer added Kurt G. timeline score: 2
Nov 8, 2022 at 18:51 comment added Kurt G. Your $D$ should then be $D_t=\int_0^tqS_u e^{-ru}\,du$. Then you should get the same forward.
Nov 8, 2022 at 18:42 comment added Conductor @KurtG.: say I would invest the dividends into the money market account, not the stock. The transaction table above would still be valid: wouldn't I still get a different result to yours?
Nov 8, 2022 at 18:28 comment added Kurt G. Smart ! You are trying to set up a portfolio in which, instead of investing the paid dividends into the money market account $e^{rt}$, they get invested into buying more shares of the stock $S_t$. This is not uncommon in practice. I thought about this recently and found it quite complicated to set up an equation that reflects the fact that every newly bought piece of share $qS_t$ immediately pays its own dividends that must be reinvested also. It seems easier to do this with a discrete dividend that is just paid once a year.
Nov 8, 2022 at 16:29 history edited Conductor CC BY-SA 4.0
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Nov 8, 2022 at 15:28 comment added Conductor @dm63: thank you. I have taken the expectation and I still get the wrong answer.
Nov 8, 2022 at 15:28 history edited Conductor CC BY-SA 4.0
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Nov 8, 2022 at 14:57 comment added dm63 The basic difference is that your formula has a term in it that is not known at $t_0$ (The integral) so it can’t be correct. Essentially the other answer has replaced that term by its expectation.
Nov 8, 2022 at 14:38 history asked Conductor CC BY-SA 4.0