Skip to main content
Data Science

You are not logged in. Your edit will be placed in a queue until it is peer reviewed.

We welcome edits that make the post easier to understand and more valuable for readers. Because community members review edits, please try to make the post substantially better than how you found it, for example, by fixing grammar or adding additional resources and hyperlinks.

Required fields*

3
  • 1
    $\begingroup$ How far ahead do you want to forecast? Because prevday2 doesn't exist if you are trying to forecast less than two days. You want to forecast a week ahead - you can't use any of the prev variables. That will simplify things a bit. Also its impossible to see what's going on with the power usage variable in your plot - since its strictly positive, why not log-transform it? Once you've sorted all that out then look at model variable selection. Or just throw everything into a Random Forest model... $\endgroup$ Commented Apr 6, 2016 at 7:45
  • $\begingroup$ I have explained my problem in more detail. $\endgroup$ Commented Apr 6, 2016 at 8:11
  • $\begingroup$ What does the power consumption curve look like? How good an estimate of the next half-hour is the current half-hour? What about how good an estimate of the next half hour is the trend based on the last two half hours? Where's your justification for 48 (independent?) models? if you really only want to do one-step ahead forecasting then Kalman filter and job done. $\endgroup$ Commented Apr 6, 2016 at 10:03