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Bounty Ended with Noah Weber's answer chosen by Maeaex1

Time-series prediction: Model & data assumptions in AI/ML models vs. conventional models

I was wondering if there iswas a good paper out there, that informs about model and data assumptions in AI/ML approaches?.

For example, if you look at Time Series Modelling (Estimation or Prediction) with Linear models or (G)ARCH/ARMA processes, there are a lot of data assumptions that have to be satisfied to meet the underlying model assumptions:

Linear Regression

  • No Autocorrelation in your observations, often when dealt with level data (--> ACF)
  • Stationarity (Unit-Roots --> Spurious Regressions)
  • Homoscedasticity
  • Assumptions about error term distribution "Normaldist" (mean = 0, and some finite variance) etc.

Autoregressive Models

  • stationarity
  • squared error autocorrelation
  • ...

When dealing with ML/AI approaches, it feels like you can throw whatever you like as an input (my subjective perception). You are satisfied with the result as long as some prediction/estimation error measurement is good enough (similar to a high, but often misleading R²).

What assumptions have to be satisfied for an RNN, CNN or LSTM model, that find application in time-series prediction?

Any thoughts?

ADDED

  • Good Article describing my question/thoughts.
  • Medium Article discussing model assumptions + tests, but not in the context of more advanced models
  • I read the 100-page ML Book- Unfortunately almost no content about model assumptions or how to test for them.

Time-series prediction: Model & data assumptions in AI/ML models vs. conventional models

I was wondering if there is a good paper out there, that informs about model and data assumptions in AI/ML approaches?

For example if you look at Time Series Modelling (Estimation or Prediction) with Linear models or (G)ARCH/ARMA processes, there are a lot of data assumptions that have to be satisfied to meet the underlying model assumptions:

Linear Regression

  • No Autocorrelation in your observations, often when dealt with level data (--> ACF)
  • Stationarity (Unit-Roots --> Spurious Regressions)
  • Homoscedasticity
  • Assumptions about error term distribution "Normaldist" (mean = 0, and some finite variance) etc.

Autoregressive Models

  • stationarity
  • squared error autocorrelation
  • ...

When dealing with ML/AI approaches it feels like you can throw whatever you like as an input (my subjective perception). You are satisfied with the result as long as some prediction/estimation error measurement is good enough (similar to a high, but often misleading R²).

What assumptions have to be satisfied for an RNN, CNN or LSTM model, that find application in time-series prediction?

Any thoughts?

ADDED

  • Good Article describing my question/thoughts.
  • Medium Article discussing model assumptions + tests, but not in the context of more advanced models
  • I read the 100-page ML Book- Unfortunately almost no content about model assumptions or how to test for them.

Time-series prediction: Model & data assumptions in AI/ML models vs conventional models

I was wondering if there was a good paper out there that informs about model and data assumptions in AI/ML approaches.

For example, if you look at Time Series Modelling (Estimation or Prediction) with Linear models or (G)ARCH/ARMA processes, there are a lot of data assumptions that have to be satisfied to meet the underlying model assumptions:

Linear Regression

  • No Autocorrelation in your observations, often when dealt with level data (--> ACF)
  • Stationarity (Unit-Roots --> Spurious Regressions)
  • Homoscedasticity
  • Assumptions about error term distribution "Normaldist" (mean = 0, and some finite variance) etc.

Autoregressive Models

  • stationarity
  • squared error autocorrelation
  • ...

When dealing with ML/AI approaches, it feels like you can throw whatever you like as an input (my subjective perception). You are satisfied with the result as long as some prediction/estimation error measurement is good enough (similar to a high, but often misleading R²).

What assumptions have to be satisfied for an RNN, CNN or LSTM model that find application in time-series prediction?

Any thoughts?

ADDED

  • Good Article describing my question/thoughts.
  • Medium Article discussing model assumptions + tests, but not in the context of more advanced models
  • I read the 100-page ML Book- Unfortunately almost no content about model assumptions or how to test for them.
Notice added Draw attention by Maeaex1
Bounty Started worth 50 reputation by Maeaex1
Formulated a specifc question and changed question title.
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Maeaex1
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Assumptions made when modelling with ML Time-series prediction: Model & data assumptions in AI/AI approachesML models vs. "conventional" statisticalconventional models

I was wondering if there is a good paper out there, that informs about model and data assumptions in AI/ML approaches?

For example if you look at Time Series Modelling (Estimation or Prediction) with Linear models or (G)ARCH/ARMA processes, there are a lot of data assumptions that have to be satisfied to meet the underlying model assumptions:

Linear Regression

  • No Autocorrelation in your observations, often when dealt with level data (--> ACF)
  • Stationarity (Unit-Roots --> Spurious Regressions)
  • Homoscedasticity
  • Assumptions about error term distribution "Normaldist" (mean = 0, and some finite variance) etc.

Autoregressive Models

  • stationarity
  • squared error autocorrelation
  • ...

When dealing with ML/AI approaches it feels like you can throw whatever you like as an input (my subjective perception). You are satisfied with the result as long as some prediction/estimation error measurement is good enough (similar to a high, but often misleading R²).

What assumptions have to be satisfied for an RNN, CNN or LSTM model, that find application in time-series prediction?

Any thoughts?

ADDED

  • Good Article describing my question/thoughts.
  • Medium Article discussing model assumptions + tests, but not in the context of more advanced models
  • I read the 100-page ML Book- Unfortunately almost no content about model assumptions or how to test for them.

Assumptions made when modelling with ML/AI approaches vs. "conventional" statistical models

I was wondering if there is a good paper out there, that informs about model and data assumptions in AI/ML approaches?

For example if you look at Time Series Modelling (Estimation or Prediction) with Linear models or (G)ARCH/ARMA processes, there are a lot of data assumptions that have to be satisfied to meet the underlying model assumptions:

Linear Regression

  • No Autocorrelation in your observations, often when dealt with level data (--> ACF)
  • Stationarity (Unit-Roots --> Spurious Regressions)
  • Homoscedasticity
  • Assumptions about error term distribution "Normaldist" (mean = 0, and some finite variance) etc.

Autoregressive Models

  • stationarity
  • squared error autocorrelation
  • ...

When dealing with ML/AI approaches it feels like you can throw whatever you like as an input (my subjective perception). You are satisfied with the result as long as some prediction/estimation error measurement is good enough (similar to a high, but often misleading R²).

Any thoughts?

ADDED

  • Good Article describing my question/thoughts.
  • Medium Article discussing model assumptions + tests, but not in the context of more advanced models
  • I read the 100-page ML Book- Unfortunately almost no content about model assumptions or how to test for them.

Time-series prediction: Model & data assumptions in AI/ML models vs. conventional models

I was wondering if there is a good paper out there, that informs about model and data assumptions in AI/ML approaches?

For example if you look at Time Series Modelling (Estimation or Prediction) with Linear models or (G)ARCH/ARMA processes, there are a lot of data assumptions that have to be satisfied to meet the underlying model assumptions:

Linear Regression

  • No Autocorrelation in your observations, often when dealt with level data (--> ACF)
  • Stationarity (Unit-Roots --> Spurious Regressions)
  • Homoscedasticity
  • Assumptions about error term distribution "Normaldist" (mean = 0, and some finite variance) etc.

Autoregressive Models

  • stationarity
  • squared error autocorrelation
  • ...

When dealing with ML/AI approaches it feels like you can throw whatever you like as an input (my subjective perception). You are satisfied with the result as long as some prediction/estimation error measurement is good enough (similar to a high, but often misleading R²).

What assumptions have to be satisfied for an RNN, CNN or LSTM model, that find application in time-series prediction?

Any thoughts?

ADDED

  • Good Article describing my question/thoughts.
  • Medium Article discussing model assumptions + tests, but not in the context of more advanced models
  • I read the 100-page ML Book- Unfortunately almost no content about model assumptions or how to test for them.

I was wondering if there is a good paper out there, that informs about model and data assumptions in AI/ML approaches?

For example if you look at Time Series Modelling (Estimation or Prediction) with Linear models or (G)ARCH/ARMA processes, there are a lot of data assumptions that have to be satisfied to meet the underlying model assumptions:

Linear Regression

  • No Autocorrelation in your observations, often when dealt with level data (--> ACF)
  • Stationarity (Unit-Roots --> Spurious Regressions)
  • Homoscedasticity
  • Assumptions about error term distribution "Normaldist" (mean = 0, and some finite variance) etc.

Autoregressive Models

  • stationarity
  • squared error autocorrelation
  • ...

When dealing with ML/AI approaches it feels like you can throw whatever you like as an input (my subjective perception). You are satisfied with the result as long as some prediction/estimation error measurement is good enough (similar to a high, but often misleading R²).

Any thoughts?

ADDED

Good Article describing my question/thoughts.

  • Good Article describing my question/thoughts.
  • Medium Article discussing model assumptions + tests, but not in the context of more advanced models
  • I read the 100-page ML Book- Unfortunately almost no content about model assumptions or how to test for them.

I was wondering if there is a good paper out there, that informs about model and data assumptions in AI/ML approaches?

For example if you look at Time Series Modelling (Estimation or Prediction) with Linear models or (G)ARCH/ARMA processes, there are a lot of data assumptions that have to be satisfied to meet the underlying model assumptions:

Linear Regression

  • No Autocorrelation in your observations, often when dealt with level data (--> ACF)
  • Stationarity (Unit-Roots --> Spurious Regressions)
  • Homoscedasticity
  • Assumptions about error term distribution "Normaldist" (mean = 0, and some finite variance) etc.

Autoregressive Models

  • stationarity
  • squared error autocorrelation
  • ...

When dealing with ML/AI approaches it feels like you can throw whatever you like as an input (my subjective perception). You are satisfied with the result as long as some prediction/estimation error measurement is good enough (similar to a high, but often misleading R²).

Any thoughts?

ADDED

Good Article describing my question/thoughts.

I was wondering if there is a good paper out there, that informs about model and data assumptions in AI/ML approaches?

For example if you look at Time Series Modelling (Estimation or Prediction) with Linear models or (G)ARCH/ARMA processes, there are a lot of data assumptions that have to be satisfied to meet the underlying model assumptions:

Linear Regression

  • No Autocorrelation in your observations, often when dealt with level data (--> ACF)
  • Stationarity (Unit-Roots --> Spurious Regressions)
  • Homoscedasticity
  • Assumptions about error term distribution "Normaldist" (mean = 0, and some finite variance) etc.

Autoregressive Models

  • stationarity
  • squared error autocorrelation
  • ...

When dealing with ML/AI approaches it feels like you can throw whatever you like as an input (my subjective perception). You are satisfied with the result as long as some prediction/estimation error measurement is good enough (similar to a high, but often misleading R²).

Any thoughts?

ADDED

  • Good Article describing my question/thoughts.
  • Medium Article discussing model assumptions + tests, but not in the context of more advanced models
  • I read the 100-page ML Book- Unfortunately almost no content about model assumptions or how to test for them.
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Source Link
Maeaex1
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Maeaex1
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