Simple mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of human immunodeficiency virus help to clarify some of the essential relations between epidemiological factors, such as distributed incubation periods and heterogeneity in sexual activity, and the overall pattern of the AIDS epidemic. They also help to identify what kinds of epidemiological data are needed to make predictions of future trends.
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May, R., Anderson, R. Transmission dynamics of HIV infection. Nature 326, 137–142 (1987). https://doi.org/10.1038/326137a0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/326137a0
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