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Jun 27, 2018 at 8:04 comment added Erik I'm not sure if using dice is a good analogy here - one die is more random than ten dice. One die has equal chance of getting a 1 or 6 (a 500% increase), but 10 dice will almost certainly end up between 25 and 45 (less than a 100% increase)
Jun 26, 2018 at 17:19 comment added JimmyJames @FrankHileman Using a scalar for estimates is indeed a sub-optimal practice. Any proper estimate needs at least two things: an expected value and a measure of precision. When we limit to one number the precision gets lost so we can have an estimate for something routine and an estimate for something exotic and new that are the same value. These are wildly different estimates but call them the same thing. Typically what people do is increase their estimate in these scenarios which is a poor solution. You can't blame them though when no alternative is available.
Jun 26, 2018 at 16:45 comment added Frank Hileman It is unfortunate that these techniques boil everything down to a single number. A larger task can become lower risk if someone does some research or prototyping prior to the grunt work.
Jun 26, 2018 at 16:32 history answered tottinge CC BY-SA 4.0