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Review
. 2013 Nov;42(7):852-63.
doi: 10.1007/s13280-013-0430-6. Epub 2013 Aug 15.

Climate change and water resources in arid mountains: an example from the Bolivian Andes

Sally Rangecroft  1 , Stephan Harrison, Karen Anderson, John Magrath, Ana Paola Castel, Paula Pacheco
Affiliations
Review

Climate change and water resources in arid mountains: an example from the Bolivian Andes

Sally Rangecroft et al. Ambio. 2013 Nov.

Abstract

Climate change is projected to have a strongly negative effect on water supplies in the arid mountains of South America, significantly impacting millions of people. As one of the poorest countries in the region, Bolivia is particularly vulnerable to such changes due to its limited capacity to adapt. Water security is threatened further by glacial recession with Bolivian glaciers losing nearly half their ice mass over the past 50 years raising serious water management concerns. This review examines current trends in water availability and glacier melt in the Bolivian Andes, assesses the driving factors of reduced water availability and identifies key gaps in our knowledge of the Andean cryosphere. The lack of research regarding permafrost water sources in the Bolivian Andes is addressed, with focus on the potential contribution to mountain water supplies provided by rock glaciers.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
a Visual representation of predicted global warming (adapted from Bradley et al. , p. 1755). Projected changes in mean annual free-air temperatures between (1990–1999) and (2090–2099) along transect from Alaska (68°N) to southern Chile (50°S) using the mean of eight different Global Climate Models (IPCC using CO2 levels from scenario A2). Black triangles symbolize the highest mountains for each latitude; with the highest air temperature change predicted, the South American Andes are circled. b Temperature and precipitation changes over South America from the MMD-A1B simulations (IPCC , p. 895). Top row (i) Annual mean, (ii) December January February, and (iii) June July August temperature change between 1980–1999 and 2080–2099, averaged over 21 models. Bottom row shows the same as top, but for fractional change in precipitation
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Annual temperature deviation from the 1961–1990 average in the tropical Andes (1°N–23°S) between 1939 and 2006 based on a compilation of 279 station records (adapted from Vuille et al. , p. 84). Black line shows long-term warming trend (0.10 °C/decade) based on ordinary least square regression
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
a Graph showing the mass loss of ice from Chacaltaya during 1940–2009 in units of area and volume with its recession (data taken from Francou et al. , p. 418). b Visual documented disappearance of the Chacaltaya glacier in Bolivia since 1940 through photography and modeling (taken from Vergara et al. , p. 5)
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Network diagram outlining the drivers of Bolivian water scarcity and impact relationships (adapted from Stewart 2010). Gray circles represent drivers of reduced water availability and white circles represent the responses of reduced water availability and further impacts
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
a Map of rock glaciers along the Bolivian Andes with three example rock glacier locations labeled A, B, and C (shown in b). The colored inset shows the study region on a continental scale. Map is creating using Global Digital Elevation Model tiles from ASTER. b Google Earth screen shots and corresponding in situ photographs from example rock glaciers visited in July and August 2012. Rock glaciers shown are: (A) Tuni rock glacier; (B) Sajama rock glacier; (C) Chiguana rock glacier, from three different regions of the Bolivian Andes. The circle on photograph C highlights a person, showing the scale of the rock glacier which is around 50 m in height at the snout. Colored arrows on all of the Google Earth screen shots are for easy identification of the snout of the rock glaciers
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