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. 2021 Oct 5;118(40):e2108900118.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.2108900118.

China's low fertility may not hinder future prosperity

Affiliations

China's low fertility may not hinder future prosperity

Guillaume Marois et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. .

Abstract

China's low fertility is often presented as a major factor which will hinder its prosperity in the medium to long term. This is based on the assumed negative consequences of an increasing old-age dependency ratio: a simplistic measure of relative changing age structures. Based on this view, policies to increase fertility are being proposed after decades of birth restriction policies. Here, we argue that a purely age structure-based reasoning which disregards labor force participation and education attainment may be highly misleading. While fertility has indeed fallen to low levels, human capital accumulation has been very strong-especially among younger cohorts. Factoring in the effects of labor force participation and educational attainment on productivity, a measure called "productivity-weighted labor force dependency ratio" can more accurately capture the economic implications of demographic change. When using this ratio, a much more optimistic picture of the economic (and social) future of China can be envisaged.

Keywords: China; aging; dependency ratio; fertility; human capital.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interest.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Age pyramid by education (Low = lower than secondary, Medium = upper secondary, and High = postsecondary) and labor force status (Inactive and Active), China, 2015 (A); 2040 under TFR = 0.8 scenario (B); 2040 under TFR = 1.7 scenario (C).
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Projected dependency ratios according to two TFRs, China, 2015 to 2070 (2015 = 1). ADR: (population <15 and population 65+)15–64. lfdr: inactive active.pwlfdr: active weightedby productivity (SI Appendix).

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