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- 18$\begingroup$ +11! Finally an answer with an explicit simulation! And it goes directly against the conclusion of the currently accepted and of the most upvoted answers. Regarding your conclusion: if indeed "the model stability is a key factor", then one should be able to set up a simulation where the variance would increase with $K$. I've seen two simulations: yours here, and this one and both show that the variance either decreases or stays constant with $K$. Until I see a simulation with increasing variance, I'll remain very skeptical that it ever does. $\endgroup$amoeba– amoeba2018-07-18 12:06:59 +00:00Commented Jul 18, 2018 at 12:06
- 7$\begingroup$ @amoeba here's a case where LOOCV fails: consider n data points and an interpolating polynomial of degree n. Now double the number of data points by adding a duplicate right on each existing point. LOOCV says the error is zero. You need to lower the folds to get any useful info. $\endgroup$Paul– Paul2018-07-18 14:15:22 +00:00Commented Jul 18, 2018 at 14:15
- 2$\begingroup$ For thos interested in this discussion - lets continue in chat: chat.stackexchange.com/rooms/80281/… $\endgroup$Xavier Bourret Sicotte– Xavier Bourret Sicotte2018-07-20 07:46:23 +00:00Commented Jul 20, 2018 at 7:46
- 3$\begingroup$ Have you considered the fact that $k$-fold with e.g. $k=10$ allows repetition? This is not an option with LOOCV, and thus should be taken into account. (Repetition of the k-fold partitioning and procedure with the same sample.) $\endgroup$D1X– D1X2018-07-20 09:40:24 +00:00Commented Jul 20, 2018 at 9:40
- 2$\begingroup$ @amoeba: re Kohavi/ LOO and variance. I found that LOO for some classification models can be quite (surprisingly) unstable. This is particularly pronounced in small sample size, and I think it is related to the test case always belonging to the class that is underrepresented wrt. the whole sample: in binary classification stratified leave-2-out does not seem to have this problem (but I did not test extensively). This instability would add to the observed variance, making LOO stick out of the other choices of k. IIRC, this is consistent with Kohavi's findings. $\endgroup$cbeleites– cbeleites2018-07-23 17:27:22 +00:00Commented Jul 23, 2018 at 17:27
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