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  • $\begingroup$ (+1) Could you please explain why you chose the term "cumulative incidence" rather than e.g. "cdf"? I'm only familiar with the former in competing risk settings. $\endgroup$ Commented Apr 5, 2023 at 18:05
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    $\begingroup$ @Ben it's a more general term when you're doing survival analysis. If there's censoring, for instance, you're implying that Kaplan-Meier methods were used to estimate the curve height. Also if there is the potential for recurrent events, you can discuss whether repeated incidence is handled with, say, Nelson-Aelen estimators. $\endgroup$ Commented Apr 5, 2023 at 18:08
  • $\begingroup$ This by far seems like the most appropriate approach to me. I'll have my local mathematician help me with this as it's a bit beyond me. Thank you for clarifying what the probabilities ought to be for the different time points, as this was one of the things I was having difficulty getting my head around. $\endgroup$ Commented Apr 21, 2023 at 8:53