I think you're missing a . in your type string:
<databaseInitializer type="System.Data.Entity.MigrateDatabaseToLatestVersion">
The red rectangle over the code makes it hard to read...
If that doest fix it, post a comment and I'll work up a sample to match yours and see if I can get it to work...
[UPDATED 2012-08-15]
OK - I think I know what's going on here... You mentioned "I updated my web.config to have this:" and showed your XML. When I ran through the tutorial, I did NOT have to enter ANY extra XML into my web.config. During the publishing process, the XML was added for me automagically by Visual Studio's deployment process and it all "just worked".
Here's your solution:
Go back to the original web.config file without these updates, and try publishing again.
For reference, here are the <entityFramework> sections from my two web.config files, first from my project, second from my hosted service (I got that by connecting to the running site via FTP and downloading it). The VS project is called 11964172 after the SO record number for this post:
local web.config file settings
<entityFramework> <defaultConnectionFactory type="System.Data.Entity.Infrastructure.LocalDbConnectionFactory, EntityFramework"> <parameters> <parameter value="v11.0" /> </parameters> </defaultConnectionFactory> </entityFramework>
deployed web.config file settings
<entityFramework> <defaultConnectionFactory type="System.Data.Entity.Infrastructure.LocalDbConnectionFactory, EntityFramework"> <parameters> <parameter value="v11.0" /> </parameters> </defaultConnectionFactory> <contexts> <context type="_11963331.Models.ToDoDb, 11963331"> <databaseInitializer type="System.Data.Entity.MigrateDatabaseToLatestVersion`2[[_11963331.Models.ToDoDb, 11963331], [_11963331.Migrations.Configuration, 11963331]], EntityFramework, PublicKeyToken=b77a5c561934e089"> <parameters> <parameter value="_11963331.Models.ToDoDb_DatabasePublish" /> </parameters> </databaseInitializer> </context> </contexts> </entityFramework>
I guess that explains why they took a picture of the web.config file changes instead of actually providing the code to type in :-)