All papers in this series are independent academic and policy research produced solely by the author in a personal capacity. Nothing in this repository reflects the views or positions of the University of Washington, UW Medical Center, or any other institution. All analysis is based entirely on open-source, publicly available information. No classified or controlled information was used.

This repository serves as the primary timestamped publication record for the WP-2026 series. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).

These interfaces present the WP-2026 analytic framework and publicly derived enforcement data in structured form. Each module is independently bounded by the public record. No module is dependent on or derived from non-public information. The platform does not integrate modules into a unified analytic output — cross-module synthesis remains the responsibility of the user.

Launch: MDO-01 Analytic Console

Interactive decision-support interface operationalizing MDO-01 v3.0. Ten modules: three-track comparator (Diplomatic / Overt Warfare / Clandestine), authorities and friction map, adversary stress test (PRC / Russia / DPRK), campaign workflow viewer, confidence matrix, F2T2EA targeting sequence, sanctions case validation, scenario builder with categorical viability assessment, and export brief generator. All outputs are scenario-conditioned and bounded by the public record. Does not determine, recommend, or prioritize courses of action.

Companion documents: WP-2026-MDO-01-v3.pdf | Platform CI Assessment

Launch: SENI v4 — Strategic Enforcement Node Index: Global Map

Georeferenced companion to the WP-2026 series. 374 nodes across 25 threat networks: Russia-China strategic infrastructure, Russian nuclear fuel cycle, Iran WMD program, Makran Coast industrial complex, Hormuz crisis architecture, DPRK nuclear and cyber networks, global cartel and terrorist finance networks, PRC and Russian overseas military basing, Wagner/Africa Corps, IRGC-QF external operations, and BRI strategic infrastructure. Satellite imagery via Esri World Imagery (Maxar/Earthstar Geographics). OSINT basis only. Confidence levels, legal authorities, and enforcement theory carried through per node. Node ordering reflects open-source observability ceiling — not a validated hierarchy of system-wide strategic effect.

Companion documents: WP-2026-SENI-01 | SENI Sub-Series | WP-2026-INFRA-01 | Map CI Assessment

All papers are produced against documented editorial and production standards governing institutional voice, analytic tradecraft, document architecture, and pre-publication review.

00-series-standards/

The WP-2026 series is an independent policy research portfolio spanning sanctions enforcement law, competitive statecraft, financial intelligence, threat analysis, enforcement framework design, and multi-domain operations doctrine. It develops an integrated analytical architecture from foundational attribution methodology through strategic framework to operational execution and decision-support tooling, applied to the primary national security challenges of 2025–2026.

Six original analytical contributions anchor the series:

The Nexus Protocol (ATTRIBUTION-01 / CSE-01): a five-rung state nexus attribution framework with explicit disconfirmation criteria, corroboration standards, and institutional calibration across OFAC, DOJ, State, IC, and Commerce/BIS.

The PERSIST Architecture (PERSIST-01 / TARIFF-01 / CONTAIN-01 / MAXPRESS-01): a litigation-resilient competitive statecraft framework with six authority rails, tiered escalation ladder, four-tier standards of proof, neutral designation-selection rule, guardrail index, and the Coalition Conflict Resolution Protocol (CCRP).

The Strategic Enforcement Node Index (WP-2026-SENI-01 + sub-series): a 374-node global sanctions enforcement targeting register with an 11-document analytical sub-series mapping the Russian nuclear fuel cycle across three analytical layers — intelligence estimate, enforcement playbook, and strategic model.

The Siege Doctrine (SIEGE-01 / UNIFIED-01): a seven-chokepoint financial isolation framework demonstrating that coordinated simultaneous denial across all viable financial channels creates cumulative cost escalation sufficient to render large-scale criminal operations economically unsustainable.

The Corridor Wager (BRI-01 / EST-01): a grand strategy assessment of the conditional strategic opportunity space opened by the March 2026 Hormuz crisis, identifying a US-led coalition corridor architecture capable of competing with BRI at contestable nodes.

The Three-Track Analytic Model (MDO-01): a structured decision-support framework for multi-domain operations doctrine, organizing Diplomatic, Overt Warfare, and Clandestine/Covert tracks across five domains, three adversary profiles, and four campaign phases, with a fully deployed analytic console.

Read the Methodology Stack first. Strategic Architecture papers assume familiarity with the attribution framework. RESILIENCE-01 should be read after PERSIST-01 and before ESCALATE-01. ESCALATE-01 should be read after MAXPRESS-01 and RESILIENCE-01, before SHIELD-01 and SENI-01. MDO-01 can be read in parallel with the Strategic Architecture stack — it addresses a distinct but complementary domain. Threat Analysis papers can be read in any order after the methodology stack. The SENI sub-series has its own internal reading order — see 01-seni/README.md.

01-methodology/WP-2026-ATTRIBUTION-01 - THE NEXUS PROTOCOL.pdf

Establishes a four-level state nexus attribution framework — Presence, Linkage, Support, Direct Tasking — with explicit disconfirmation criteria, five corroboration principles, and institutional calibration across State, OFAC, DOJ, IC, and Commerce/BIS. Documents six attribution failure modes including advocacy capture. Produces model findings language at each level with mandatory disconfirmation requirements.

Reads into: CSE-01, SHIELD-01, all papers.

01-methodology/WP-2026-NEXUS-01 - THE PRC STATE NEXUS PROTOCOL.pdf

Extends ATTRIBUTION-01 by inserting Enablement as a fifth rung between Support and Direct Tasking. Adds beneficial ownership analysis, VIE architecture treatment, and institutional calibration for the OFAC 50 Percent Rule, FinCEN CDD, and the CFIUS effective-control test. Defines four Support/Enablement boundary tests and documents seven failure modes including threshold laundering and toleration-as-tasking.

Reads into: SHIELD-01, PERSIST-01, all PRC-focused enforcement papers.

09-mdo-doctrine/WP-2026-MDO-01-v3.pdf | Web Reader | Analytic Console

Strategic framework, execution architecture, and the three-track analytic model. Eight parts covering joint warfighting doctrine (FM 3-0, JP 3-0), five-domain architecture (land, sea, air, space, cyberspace), the three-track decision model (Diplomatic / Overt Warfare / Clandestine/Covert), PSYOP and information operations integration, SOF and covert action legal architecture, adversary context (PRC / Russia / DPRK), F2T2EA targeting workflow, and structural constraints. ODNI two-axis confidence standard throughout. Three revision passes (v1 initial; v2 red-team structural; v3 final polish). Six Key Judgments with stated basis, principal counterargument, and reassessment conditions.

Three-track framework: analytic organizing construct derived from publicly documented authorities and observed practice — not a formally codified U.S. decision architecture. The MDO-01 Analytic Console operationalizes the framework as a scenario-conditioned decision-support interface.

CI Assessment: WP-2026-CI-PLATFORM-01

Reads into: HORMUZ-01/02, SHIELD-01, PERSIST-01, MAXPRESS-01.

02-strategic-architecture/WP-2026-PERSIST-01.pdf

Five-pillar competitive statecraft framework with six authority rails, tiered escalation ladder (Tier 0–3), four-tier standards of proof, neutral designation-selection rule, guardrail index with automatic pause mechanics, prescriptive substitution guide, and model memoranda. Explicitly acknowledges allied fracture, blowback, substitution, escalation, legitimacy, and legal record risks.

Reads into: TARIFF-01, CONTAIN-01, MAXPRESS-01, RESILIENCE-01, all enforcement papers.

02-strategic-architecture/WP-2026-TARIFF-01.pdf

Seven-rail tariff enforcement architecture with bright-line predicate definitions, an explicit exclusions list naming trade deficits and FX movements as insufficient predicates, and a five-indicator economic shock guardrail. Appendix C provides a 70%/30%/24-month strategic dependency threshold.

Reads into: PERSIST-01, CONTAIN-01, MAXPRESS-01, RESILIENCE-01.

02-strategic-architecture/WP-2026-CONTAIN-01.pdf

Rejects regime collapse and coercive breakthrough as realistic success criteria. Four-component framework: Integrated Systemic Attrition Doctrine (ISAD), Sustainable Pressure and Alternatives Denial (SPAD), Dollar Enforcement Effectiveness Index (DEEI) with automatic downshift protocol, and a 90-day operational observability cycle.

Reads into: MAXPRESS-01, ESCALATE-01.

02-strategic-architecture/WP-2026-MAXPRESS-01-v4-edit.pdf

Translates strategic architecture into practitioner-ready execution. Addresses five structural gaps from prior maximum pressure campaigns. Documents pre-staging rolling 90-day readiness packages, simultaneous BIS/OFAC action as default, Lloyd's/P&I Club maritime reliability degradation mechanism, and target-specific parameters for Iran/IRGC, Russia/shadow fleet, PRC networks, Cuba/GAESA, and Venezuela.

Reads into: ESCALATE-01, all enforcement papers.

02-strategic-architecture/WP-2026-BRI-01-v4.1.pdf

Grand strategy capstone. Assesses a conditional strategic opportunity space opened by the March 2026 Hormuz crisis: a US-led coalition corridor architecture capable of displacing BRI at contestable nodes and institutionalizing transit governance through a Hormuz-Indian Ocean Forum. Six Key Judgments with dual-axis confidence labels. Scenario-conditioned throughout.

Companion: WP-2026-EST-01

02-strategic-architecture/WP-2026-EST-01.pdf

IC-style strategic estimate derived from BRI-01. Six Key Judgments with probability assessments and dual-axis confidence labels, five scenario-conditioned outcome pathways with probability bands, three competing alternative hypotheses, and ten-indicator signpost table.

Reads into: PERSIST-01, CONTAIN-01, SHIELD-01 (CCRP), HORMUZ-01/02.

02-strategic-architecture/Maximum Pressure Immigration Architecture v6 FINAL.pdf

Applies the maximum pressure enforcement architecture to immigration-linked transnational criminal networks. Integrates border enforcement mechanisms with financial isolation tools.

Reads into: MAXPRESS-01, ARCH-03, SIEGE-01.

08-resilience-foundation/WP-2026-RESILIENCE-01-v9-final.pdf

Domestic capacity as the prerequisite layer for credible competitive statecraft across four priority domains: critical minerals processing, battery technology, energy system resilience, and advanced manufacturing. Original contributions: enforcement credibility threshold architecture; priority discipline framework (first-order protections, second-order allied-complementary preferences, deferral candidates, intolerable concentration hard limits); failure probability layer with six failure modes and compound failure scenario; constraint conflict table; adversary industrial disruption model; allied dependency tolerance matrix.

Version: v9.0 Final · Style Guide v3.0 · Verbiage Guide v2.2 compliant.

Reads upstream from: PERSIST-01 (Pillar V) · CONTAIN-01 (SPAD) · ESCALATE-01 (Substitution Matrix) Reads into: ESCALATE-01 · SHIELD-01 · TARIFF-01 · All technology-denial enforcement papers

03-applied-enforcement/WP-2026-SHIELD-01 V7 PUBLISH.pdf | Executive Brief

Applies the five-rung Commercial State Nexus Ladder to sanctions enforcement against PRC-shielded partner-state networks. Seven Key Judgments, ten-instrument authority-to-action matrix, five-phase sequencing architecture, and the Coalition Conflict Resolution Protocol (CCRP).

Academic Article: WP-2026-SHIELD-01-Academic-Article.pdf — peer-review derivative for International Security / Security Studies register.

Reads into: PERSIST-01, MAXPRESS-01.

03-applied-enforcement/WP-2026-ESCALATE-01-v7-final.pdf

Graduated enforcement decision architecture spanning 15 parts. Seven Key Judgments. Original contributions: institutional throughput constraint layer (OFAC designation capacity band, DOJ forfeiture timelines, BIS FDPR enforcement lag); market feedback loop model with nonlinear coalition fracture threshold; compressed timeline mode; IEEPA authority failure contingency layer with four-step re-designation sequence; adversary adaptation cycle (probe–exploit–institutionalize–normalize); process degradation architecture identifying four institutional decay mechanisms. Country parameters for Iran, DPRK, Russia, Venezuela, PRC-facilitated networks.

Version: v7.0 Final · Style Guide v3.0 · Verbiage Guide v2.2 compliant.

Reads upstream from: PERSIST-01 · CONTAIN-01 · MAXPRESS-01 · RESILIENCE-01 Reads into: SHIELD-01 · SENI-01 · All applied enforcement papers

03-applied-enforcement/WP-2026-SENI-01-v5.2-final.pdf

374-node global sanctions enforcement targeting register across 15 sections. Node counts: 110 DESIGNATED | 52 TARGETABLE | 35 PARTIAL | 144 MONITOR | 11 CONSTRAINED | 14 OFF-LIMITS | 3 NEXUS | 3 SEIZED. Russian nuclear fuel cycle section developed in depth as standalone sub-series: 01-seni/

03-applied-enforcement/WP-2026-INFRA-01-v5-4-DISSEMINATION.pdf

Infrastructure enforcement framework addressing physical and digital supply chain interdiction points.

03-applied-enforcement/WP-2026-AXIS-01-v3.0-FINAL.pdf

Public-source assessment of enforcement resilience, node criticality, and sanctions friction across the Russia–China strategic economic partnership and its 60-node infrastructure complex. Two-axis node-criticality framework combining irreplaceability and throughput volume. Six Key Judgments with dual-axis confidence labels. Version: v3.0 FINAL.

04-threat-analysis/WP-2026-IRAN NUCLEAR ASSESSMENT.pdf

Post-strike open-source assessment of Iran's nuclear status following Operation Midnight Hammer (June 2025). Covers pre-strike baseline, Fordow penetration effects, three-model stockpile location analysis, Pickaxe Mountain assessment, and conditional breakout timeline.

04-threat-analysis/WP-2026- IRAN WMD ASSESSMENT.pdf

Companion assessment covering chemical and biological dimensions of the Iranian weapons program.

04-threat-analysis/BW Assessment SUBMISSION FINAL.pdf | Executive Derivative

Unclassified defensive assessment of state BW-related risk for China, Russia, Iran, and DPRK. Two-axis confidence framework applied consistently. Verification gap characterized as structural rather than episodic.

04-threat-analysis/WP-2026-HORMUZ.pdf

Active crisis context (IRGC declared closure March 2, 2026). Three-posture analysis. Original contribution: the threat of Kharg Island seizure is assessed as more durable leverage than actual seizure.

04-threat-analysis/WP-2026-HORMUZ-02-v4_1-FINAL.pdf

Full integrated campaign architecture for Hormuz stabilization across four time horizons. Partner-by-partner coordination matrix for 11 actors. Version: v4.1 Final Hardened.

These papers predate the methodology and architecture standards developed in ATTRIBUTION-01, PERSIST-01, and ANCHOR. Statutory mechanics are sound. Analytic discipline and language register are being updated to match series standards.

00-series-standards/ Style Guide v3.0 Verbiage Guide v2.2 CI Assessment v3.0 (series-level) CI Assessment-02-final (ESCALATE-01 / RESILIENCE-01) CI-PLATFORM-01 (MDO console + site — NEW) SENI-CI-01 v1.1 → 01-seni/00-architecture/ MAP-CI-01 → 07-intelligence-map/ 09-mdo-doctrine/ ← NEW MDO-01 v3.0 (paper + web reader) MDO-01 Analytic Console (interactive interface) 08-resilience-foundation/ RESILIENCE-01 v9.0 (domestic capacity prerequisite layer) | └─→ ESCALATE-01 · SHIELD-01 · TARIFF-01 ATTRIBUTION-01 (4-level nexus framework) │ CSE-01/NEXUS-01 (5-rung PRC extension) │ ├──→ SHIELD-01 (CCRP) ──→ SENI-01 v5.2 (374 nodes, 15 sections) │ │ │ │ │ 01-seni/ sub-series (11 documents) │ │ ├── EXEC-01 │ │ ├── ARCH-01 │ │ ├── L1: Vol1-3 + Analytical │ │ ├── L2: SCORE-01-v2, FPA-01-v3, FPA-02 │ │ └── L3: Layer3 │ │ │ └──→ SHIELD-01-Academic-Article │ ├──→ PERSIST-01 ──→ TARIFF-01 │ │ │ ├──→ CONTAIN-01 ──→ MAXPRESS-01 ──→ ESCALATE-01 v7.0 │ │ │ │ │ AXIS-01, INFRA-01 │ │ │ └──→ Immigration Architecture │ ├──→ MDO-01 v3.0 (three-track doctrine + console) ← NEW │ │ │ └──→ HORMUZ-01/02 · SHIELD-01 · PERSIST-01 · MAXPRESS-01 │ ├──→ HORMUZ-01 ──→ HORMUZ-02 │ │ │ └──→ Iran Nuclear ──→ BW Assessment │ │ │ Iran WMD │ └──→ BRI-01 v4.1 ──→ EST-01 UNIFIED-01 → SIEGE-01 · CTF-01 · CPF-02 · ARCH-03 07-intelligence-map/ SENI v4 Global Map (374 nodes, 25 networks) MAP-CI-01 v1.4 06-isr-annexes/ ISR Decision Support Annex ISR WMD Intelligence Briefing 

George, Collin. WP-2026: Independent Policy Research Series. Center for Competitive Statecraft and Strategic Policy, March 2026. https://github.com/collingeorge/WP-2026

UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE // INDEPENDENT POLICY RESEARCH
Center for Competitive Statecraft and Strategic Policy | Collin George | March 2026
Licensed under CC BY 4.0 — https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/