Let $X = 2\Bbb{Z} + 1$ or $2 \Bbb{N} + 1$ where $0 \in \Bbb{N}$, this approach will probably play well with both forms. See Extending the Collatz function to larger domains.
Define the shortcut Collatz function to be:
$$ f : X \to X \\ f(x) = \dfrac{3x + 1}{2^{\nu_2(3x + 1)}} $$
where $\nu_2(z)$ is the common notation meaning the maximum exponent $e$ of $2$ such that $2^e \mid z$.
Clearly then, the Collatz conjecture is equivalent to this function always taking its input (either in $\Bbb{Z}$ or $\Bbb{N}$) to one of the well-known finite loops. For the $X = 2\Bbb{N} + 1$ form, this is the original Collatz conjecture.
But $f$ satisfies this equation:
$$ f(3xy + x +y) = f(x)f(y) $$
Proof. Simply multiply the RHS out and notice that $2^{\nu_2(3x + 1)} 2^{\nu_2(3y+1)} = 2^{\nu_2((3x + 1)(3y+1))}$. So the numerator is $(3x + 1)(3y+1) = 9xy + 3x + 3y + 1 = 3(3xy + x + y) + 1$, and we're done, but the reader should write this out fully on paper. QED
So for instance $3(1)(1) + 1 + 1 = 5$ so that we know without a doubt that $f(5) = f(1)f(1) = 1$.
So if no reference exists that starts out with this simple observation, my question is this; in either form ($2\Bbb{N} + 1$ or $2\Bbb{Z} + 1 = X$), does the set:
$$ \{3xy + x + y: x,y \in X\} $$
cover almost all of $X$? By that I mean all but a finite number of values in $X$ are taken on by values of that polynomial expression where inputs are all pairs $(x,y) \in X^2$.
No idea how to solve this!
Notice that the law $x\star y := 3xy + x + y$ is a semigroup law on the set $X$. I didn't prove this recently, but I recall that this is true from other posts I've made in the past. You can prove it directly. I don't know if this matters to Collatz, but it's just a note. This implies that $f(x\star y) = f(x)f(y)$ or that the standard shortcut Collatz function, is also a semigroup homomorphism, although the $\star$ law is less natural to comprehend than the usual $\cdot$ on the RHS.
I want to say this kind of seems related to Erdős covering systems, since:
$$ \vdots \\ 3(-3)x - 1 + x = -8x - 1 \\ 3(-1)x - 1 + x = -2x - 1 \\ 3(1)x + 1 + x = 4x + 1 \\ 3(3)x + 3 + x = 10x + 3 \\ 3(5)x + 5 + x = 16 x + 5 \\ \vdots $$
But we merely want to cover odd numbers. So to align this with the usual Erdos covers, we would take each residue class $a\Bbb{Z} + b$ and do: $\frac{a \Bbb{Z} + b - 1}{2}$, which will work because each modulus is even and each residue representative is odd. We also must only pass in an odd number for $x$, so that would change the above list of residue classes completely. It's doable though!