Let $X_1,\dotsc,X_n$ be iid random variables with variance $\sigma^2 < \infty$. Let $M$ be the median of $X_1,\dotsc,X_n$. If it helps, assume that $n$ is odd (but more generally, I consider the median of an even number of observations to be the arithmetic mean of the two middle values).
Intuitively, $\text{var}(M)\leq\sigma^2$. Is this true? Why?
I hope that this is true, and would love to see a proof. If it is not true:
- Is it true if each $X_i$ is distributed uniformly on $\{a,\dotsc,b\}$ for some integers $a<b$.
- More generally, is it true for finitely supported distributions on $\mathbb{R}$ that are symmetric about their mean?
- More generally, is it true for finitely support distributions on $\mathbb{R}$? For discrete distributions on $\mathbb{R}$?
There's a related question here, but it is in the context of continuous distributions and observations that are not iid. One of the answers there mentions the iid case, but in the context of continuous distributions (and in any case, with a general reference, and without a proof).
My attempts:
- I considered using the formula for the cdf of order statistics, as in wikipedia, but this seems cumbersome.
- At least when $n$ is large, I thought I could prove something in this direction using the law of large numbers. Maybe this works, but I'm interested in small $n$ as well.