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Let $X_1,\dotsc,X_n$ be iid random variables with variance $\sigma^2 < \infty$. Let $M$ be the median of $X_1,\dotsc,X_n$. If it helps, assume that $n$ is odd (but more generally, I consider the median of an even number of observations to be the arithmetic mean of the two middle values).

Intuitively, $\text{var}(M)\leq\sigma^2$. Is this true? Why?

I hope that this is true, and would love to see a proof. If it is not true:

  1. Is it true if each $X_i$ is distributed uniformly on $\{a,\dotsc,b\}$ for some integers $a<b$.
  2. More generally, is it true for finitely supported distributions on $\mathbb{R}$ that are symmetric about their mean?
  3. More generally, is it true for finitely support distributions on $\mathbb{R}$? For discrete distributions on $\mathbb{R}$?

There's a related question here, but it is in the context of continuous distributions and observations that are not iid. One of the answers there mentions the iid case, but in the context of continuous distributions (and in any case, with a general reference, and without a proof).

My attempts:

  1. I considered using the formula for the cdf of order statistics, as in wikipedia, but this seems cumbersome.
  2. At least when $n$ is large, I thought I could prove something in this direction using the law of large numbers. Maybe this works, but I'm interested in small $n$ as well.
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  • $\begingroup$ If you scroll down on that Wikipedia page you will see mention of a result of Mosteller implying that the variance of the median decays like $C/n$ for large $n$. True also for other quantiles, with an appropriate constant. $\endgroup$ Commented Jun 5 at 23:25
  • $\begingroup$ It is as simple as first noting that with a sample size of 1, the variance of the sample median is (obviously) the same as a single observation followed by the variance of the median must strictly decrease with sample size. Are there distributions where the variance of the median doesn't strictly decrease with increasing sample size? $\endgroup$ Commented Jun 6 at 1:23
  • $\begingroup$ @JimB Answering your last question with a ridiculous edge case: if the variance of the original distribution is zero, then the variance of the median for any sample size is also zero, and therefore the variance does not strictly decrease. But, yes the variance is non increasing and that is all that is needed to prove the OP's conjecture. $\endgroup$ Commented Jun 6 at 12:21

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At least for a symmetric parent $f$ the variance of the sample median is at most $\sigma^2$. Consider integrable densities with finite moments of order two. By normalization (i.e., by going from ${\bf X}$ to ${\bf X}' = ({\bf X} - \mu)/\sigma$) we may assume without loss of generality that $\mu=0$ and $\sigma^2=1$. For a symmetrical parent, $f(x)=f(-x)$, we have by standard partial integration
\begin{eqnarray*} \mbox{E}[{\bf X}^2] & = & -2 \int_{-\infty}^{0} \, x F(x) \, dx \; + \; 2 \int_{0}^{\infty} \, x [1-F(x)] \, dx \end{eqnarray*} which under the assumption of symmetry and standardization simplifies to \begin{eqnarray*} \sigma^2 & = & 4 \, \int_{0}^{\infty} \, x [1-F(x)] \, dx \; = \; 1 \end{eqnarray*} Looking at samples of size $n=3$, the density $g$ of the second order statistic, that is, of the sample median, equals $g(x) = 6 f(x) F(x) [1-F(x)]$. It is therefore symmetric, too, and the distribution function is $G(x) = 3 F^2(x) -2F^3(x)$. Note that by assumption $F(0)=\frac{1}{2}$. For $x \geq 0$ (i.e., for $\frac{1}{2} \leq F \leq 1$) it is elementary to show that \begin{eqnarray*} 1 - G(t) \; = \; 1 - 3 F^2(x) + 2F^3(x) & \leq & 1-F(x) \end{eqnarray*} Thus, we get for the variance of the sample median \begin{eqnarray*} 4 \, \int_{0}^{\infty} \, x [1-G(x)] \, dx & \leq & 4 \, \int_{0}^{\infty} \, x [1-F(x)] \, dx \; = \; \sigma^2 \end{eqnarray*} The variance of the sample median cannot increase with $n$, and in any case an essentially similar proof may be given for any odd sample size $2m-1$ using the density of the $m-$th order statistic. The bound $\sigma^2$ for the variance of the sample median may be attained arbitrarily close, for example, by a parent $f$ that is an even mixture of two unit-variance normals with widely separated means $\pm \mu$.

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    $\begingroup$ Can you edit your answer to include the proof for the non-symmetric case? It seems much harder, since $\sigma^2=\mathbb E(M-\mathbb E[M])^2$, so we need some way to control the location of $\mathbb E[M]$. $\endgroup$ Commented Jun 11 at 21:17
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    $\begingroup$ You are right that the asymmetric case is more cumbersome. I have adapted the wording in my answer to make clear that it really covers only the symmetric case, leaving open the asymmetric case. $\endgroup$ Commented Jun 12 at 13:08

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