Technically, it could return nil.
The probability of such a failure at that point is incredibly unlikely. Your app would probably crash or abort before a nil were returned. Consider it about as unlikely as malloc returning NULL.
My implementations have used checked object creation for years - I cannot remember ever seeing [NSMutableArray array] return nil in that time in development/testing.
Note that this answer is specific to [NSMutableArray array], not any/every initializer/constructor in existence. [NSMutableArray array] is nearly the most 'consistent' class of initializer/constructor in this regard because there is no reason for it to fail under normal circumstances.
[array count] != 0orif (array)nildoes not crash withunrecognized selector sent to instance ....