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I'm trying to build a species that's exclusively carnivorous, and its favored prey is humans. The species is a solitary mammalian ambush predator, probably with a build similar to a big cat such as a tiger, though I'm also drawing some inspiration from classic dragon lore. It has magical origins and reproduces slowly. Its habitat is a rainy, subarctic coniferous forest similar to the west coast of Canada, at such a latitude that winters are much darker than summers, which may mean that it does a lot of its hunting in winter. The humans in this setting are fairly advanced hunter-gatherers: the environment is productive enough that people can be semi-sedentary, similar to west-coast First Nations like the Haida and Tlingit, though some also practice part-time reindeer herding like the Sami or some groups in northern Asia.

I want this critter to be common enough and hungry enough that humans generally have to be wary of it when they venture into the woods. As far as size, at its smallest it should be at least as big as the average human and a decent challenge for a single warrior. It is difficult to kill, and although it's mammalian, like a reptile, it keeps getting bigger the longer it lives, and I'd like to see some legendary individuals get to draconic proportions. But how big and how common can I make this thing before my human population can no longer survive under its predation?

I've seen the rule of a 1:10 predator-prey ratio by biomass, but the 10 should represent how much prey is actually consumed, not the size of the prey's population (a tiger can eat up to 10x its own weight annually), and I'm not sure how large a percentage of a human population (which will still also face some mortality from ordinary causes like old age, injury, disease, and human violence) can be eaten by a predator before that population can no longer reasonably replace itself.

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  • $\begingroup$ Do your predators live and hunt alone? Or do they live in families? Pairs? Packs? $\endgroup$ Commented 23 hours ago
  • $\begingroup$ @datacube they are solitary; I have added that information to the main question. Thanks! $\endgroup$ Commented 23 hours ago
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    $\begingroup$ The real challenge will be explaining why a group of human hunters can’t (or won’t) just kill these creatures. Size isn’t an issue; Ancient humans used to hunt mammoths. $\endgroup$ Commented 23 hours ago
  • $\begingroup$ What do you want the population size to be? We can find an explanation for implausible ones. Maybe they hunted another prey before (the reindeer) and humans were an side dish of opportunity, and now that prey is scarce through disease, resulting in more humans being hunted down. Maybe it is a seasonal situation. $\endgroup$ Commented 22 hours ago
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    $\begingroup$ I agree with @chai_tea. Are you introducing a new apex predator that can out-think (aka "solve problems better") than humanity? Unless a too-small and under-equipped human population is suddenly dropped into the predator's environment (don't have enough time to recover from attacks), the human ability to solve complex problems always wins the predation game. $\endgroup$ Commented 22 hours ago

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its favored prey is humans

despite how much some of us brag about humans being the apex of evolution, we make for a very poor prey: when raised free ranging we are very lean, and fat, energy rich tissues are the most prized tissues for carnivores feasting on their preys. Compare the fat content of a seal with a surfer, and you understand why often sharks bite and drop.

On top of that, we have this nasty habit of hunting into extinction any predator who feels too eager in having this weird two legged tofu sample on their menu.

That said, solitary predators, like most felids, need to be larger than their preys to have decent chances of overpowering them. Compare tigers with wolves: wolves, being able to rely on group hunt, can afford being smaller.

Big cats (tigers, mountain lions, panthers, cougars, lions...) are your reference here for a ballpark reference on the body size. Anything smaller than them would have a hard time in efficiently overpowering an adult. Population size-wise, still look at them.

What I said about the nasty habit we have also becomes the weak point of your setting: a true human like population would quickly act to hunt down the predator population, while for a population without that trait I would argue that it cannot be classified as human. Grazing herbivores do what you want, not hunter gatherers.

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    $\begingroup$ Just this, humans may not be the ultimate attackers, but when it comes to defence, we are like elephants: too nasty to be worth the hassle. The key is that we can talk and spread information . This also means we can develop defensive tactics that outpace evolution. $\endgroup$ Commented 23 hours ago
  • $\begingroup$ Two Lions were theorized to have gotten a taste from scavenging abandoned slaves flesh, and hunted down humans excessively when their original favoured prey dropped in numbers through disease. $\endgroup$ Commented 22 hours ago
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    $\begingroup$ The Ghost and the Darkness is a good movie of the whole affair, but note the ultimate fate of the lions: they ended up stuffed and in a museum. $\endgroup$ Commented 22 hours ago
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As L.Dutch has said, it hardly matters how big these predators get unless they're so tough and heavily armoured that hunter-gatherer humans basically have no chance at all of killing them.

Humans are very good at hunting things, no matter their size. These predators would need to be so heavily armoured that a spear or an arrow could do no damage, and even setting a spear against their charge would result in a broken spear. The predators would have to be awfully suspicious of poisons too, otherwise they might eat a poisoned prey and die.

However, assuming that these predators are able to usually survive any attempts by their prey to reduce their numbers, the populations of predators and prey are mathematically related, according to the Lotka-Volterra equations:

$\frac{dx}{dt}=\alpha x - \beta xy$

$\frac{dy}{dt}=-\gamma y+\delta xy$

Where:

  • $x$ is the population density of prey (for example, the number of rabbits per square kilometre);
  • $y$ is the population density of some predator (for example, the number of foxes per square kilometre);
  • $\frac{dy}{dt}$ and $\frac{dx}{dt}$ represent the instantaneous growth rates of the two populations;
  • $t$ represents time;
  • The prey's parameters, $α$ and $β$, describe, respectively, the maximum prey per capita growth rate, and the effect of the presence of predators on the prey death rate.
  • The predator's parameters, $γ$, $δ$, respectively describe the predator's per capita death rate, and the effect of the presence of prey on the predator's growth rate.

All these variables are positive real numbers.

For warm-blooded predators and prey, this typically works out to the prey having a biomass around 100 times that of the predators, while for cold-blooded predators, the prey might have a biomass of around 10 times that of the predators. As the wikipedia article shows, the population changes of the predators is similar to but lags that of the prey populations somewhat.

So, knowing this, you should be able to calculate the relative populations of hunter-gatherer humans and these mythical predators. Just be sure to assign reasonable values to the variables.

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  • $\begingroup$ Thanks for the info on the equations! Do you have an additional reference for the typical biomass ratios, or is that just your experience from working with the equations? $\endgroup$ Commented 3 mins ago

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